Import volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is expected to increase 1.1 percent in July over the same month last year, but a slow summer should be followed by significant increases as retailers head into the holiday season this fall, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker
report released Tuesday by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
“With the economy recovering slowly, retailers have been cautious with imports this summer, but it’s clear that they expect an upturn later in the year,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Import numbers have been close to flat since spring, but we expect to see stronger increases this fall.”
Cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them. But the amount of merchandise imported nonetheless provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations, NRF and Hackett Associates said.
U.S. ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.4 million TEUs in May, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up only 0.6 percent from May 2012.
June was estimated at 1.4 million TEUs, down 0.7 percent from a year ago. July is forecast at 1.4 million TEUs, up 1.1 percent from last year; August at 1.5 million TEUs, up 1.7 percent; September at 1.4 million TEUs, up 2.4 percent; October at 1.5 million TEUs, up 9.1 percent; and November at 1.4 million TEUs, up 7.3 percent.
The first six months of 2013 totaled an estimated 7.8 million TEUs, up 1.2 percent from the first half of 2012. The total for 2012 was 15.8 million TEUs, up 2.9 percent from 2011.
Despite the projected increase in imports, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said actual results will hinge on consumer confidence.
“Consumer sales remain relatively weak compared with GDP,” Hackett said. “If consumers do not turn their confidence into purchases then import volumes will drop.” - Eric Johnson