Lars Jensen, chief executive officer of the Danish maritime research firm SeaIntel
, said his firm expects 48 super-post-Panamax vessels to enter Asia-Europe trade in 2013, and for some existing vessels in that trade to cascade into the transpacific.
SeaIntel's most recent Sunday Spotlight
newsletter takes a look at those deliveries on a detailed week-by-week basis.
"If the carriers maintain the current service pattern, and neither launch nor remove any services, it leads to a situation where the capacity on Asia-Europe will have increased 11 percent in fourth quarter 2013 versus same period 2012. The significant increase is partly a result of the injection of large vessels, and partly a result of the carriers extensive blanking of sailings in Q4 2012," Jensen said.
"Presently it appears highly unlikely we see a surge from Asia to Europe," he added. "We would thus expect carriers to remove significant capacity from the Asia-Europe trade throughout 2013. This would be done as a combination of service closures, service re-arrangements and blanked sailings. In the absence of such capacity reductions, freight rates will be placed under significant pressure."
Jensen said, as a result of the new ships being added to the Asia-Europe trade, "48 slightly 'smaller' vessels will indeed be moved to trades such as transpac as well as Asia-Middle East in 2013." - Chris Dupin