Drewry said “ocean carriers should not count too much on a significant revenue boost” in the third quarter this year, adding the “peak season of the east-west trades no longer means a big surge in cargo volumes.”
While the third quarter “will probably still be the best for ocean carriers,” the London-based consultant said the proportion of annual traffic shipped in the third quarter has been coming down in recent years.
In its Container Insight Weekly
, Drewry said only 26.4 percent of total traffic from Asia to the United States was shipped last year in the third quarter compared to an average of 27.1 percent in 2004-2007. It noted a similar trend in the trade from Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean.
At the same time, Drewry explained proportion of cargo shipped in the second quarter from Asia to the U.S. has been on the upswing since 2009.
Drewry predicts “peak season surcharges in the major east-west trades will continue to diminish in importance, and be replaced by simpler GRIs (general rate increases).” - Chris Dupin